Wellington may lose some bus services as a funding crunch hits the regional council - but the head of public transport says unlike the infamous chaos-causing “bustastrophe”, quality matters more this time around.
The drivers’ union is less optimistic and says we are already in a race to the bottom, with upcoming strike action the canary in the coal mine.
Tonia Haskell, the managing director of Transdev, which owns Mana Newlands Coach Services, said all bus companies had been told by the “financially strapped” Greater Wellington Regional Council to keep tenders “sharp” due to Waka Kotahi NZTA funding cuts and the need to keep rates rises low.
The Government in 2024 cut public transport funding, with a push for councils to retrieve more of the cost from users. It also has rates capping coming in from 2029, limiting councils’ ability to make up any shortfall.
That, mixed with looming bus driver strikes, has led to warnings that Wellington is heading to a return of the ill-fated 2018 “bustastrophe” overhaul, which led to a driver shortage, missed trips, no-show buses and a loss of trust in the transport system.
Kevin O’Sullivan, from Tramways Union, said bus companies had told him the regional council would accept the cheapest, not best, tender. That would mean cost-cutting, which would lead to bad work hours and shifts, then drivers leaving the industry, creating a driver shortage.
“In other words, 2018 all over again,” O’Sullivan said.
The union is in pay negotiations with Tranzurban and drivers voted overwhelmingly for strike action after being offered a 1.45% pay increase. Inflation was 4.1% in the year to June.
The regional council had gone from assurances it did not want a repeat of the 2018 bus chaos to no longer having the money to avoid it, he said.
Council transport committee chairperson Ros Connelly said central government moves meant money was tight but, unlike the 2018 process, the decision on tenders was now weighted equally on quality and price. The 2018 process was weighted 60% on price, 40% on quality.
Tenders were now back for the Porirua and north-south Wellington city routes, with staff weighing them up. Connelly confirmed that if a workable tender came back that was too costly, the council may have to cut routes or reduce timetables. The council had an “affordability threshold”, she said.
Hutt Valley and Wairarapa routes go out to tender in 2027, followed by Wellington city east-west routes in 2028.
A council spokesperson said any decisions on contracts, funding implications or service changes would go to the elected council to decide.
“When you are facing a funding shortfall, something has to give,” said Jon Reeves, of advocacy group the Public Transport Users Association. First it was usually bus services, then driver pay, which led to fewer drivers and fewer services.
“All of this totally has an impact on public transport passengers,” he said.
Free Fares is a group fighting for free public transport for under-25s, Community Services Card holders, Total Mobility Card holders and tertiary students, while making Gold Card free travel at all hours. Frances Mountier, from the group, said talk of cutting services was heading in the wrong direction.
“We need central Government to step up,” Mountier said.
An NZTA statement said it was working with the council on the 2027-30 funding programme and changes to contract costs were a standard factor in this. Approvals for that round were yet to be decided.
Kinetic - one of Wellington’s two major bus companies - would not comment. Tranzurban, the other one, said it had not been formally notified of strike action. It referred tender questions to the regional council.
Published in The Post 24 September 2026
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